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Higher education admissions too confusing: Birmingham
The effectiveness of the ATAR system for qualifying for university places is again in the spotlight after the release of the 82 submissions to the Higher Education Standards Panel, many of which called for an overhaul of the system.
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Certainly a lot more information could be given to students. The ATAR is not a bad indicator, but its not the best. Take a student enrolling in a first year physics unit. The best predictor of their chances of success in the unit is their high school physics mark (closely followed by their Maths Specialist mark, with Maths trailing after that). And this can be reasonably quantified. A high school mark of 60% indicates a roughly 50% chance of passing the unit. A high school mark of 80% translates into an almost certain pass.
Similarly, we can take students who have recently completed a degree and build a profile. Students starting out on the degree could see the profile, and it would give them an idea of whether it was the course for them.
Some would argue that giving students quantitative information might discourage them. I would say that most young students are idealistic. Tell them they have a 50% chance of failing, and they see the 50% chance of succeeding. I don’t think anything would be lost by giving them access to some reasonably easily assimilated information that helps them decide.