Lag time: where will the new students study?

Universities are preparing for dramatic growth even before 2012, but is the government ready or able to pay for necessary infrastructure? There is likely to be significant and dramatic growth in enrolments in at least a dozen universities over the next two years, but no guarantee the government is prepared for the influx, a conference has heard. Professor Greg Craven, vice-chancellor of the Australian Catholic University, said the higher education sector stood on the cusp between policy formation and implementation in the aftermath of the Bradley review. “I expect we will see rapid and determined growth over the next couple of years and I think it will be harder and faster than the government expects,” Craven said. “That growth is happening already. The moment we get to 2012 [when caps on student places is removed], it will be like turning a tap on.” Monash University has already announced it intends to increase its student cohort by 11,000 – or nearly 20 per cent – over the next couple of years. Craven later told CR that he expected at least half of Australia’s 39 universities to adopt growth strategies. “Under the present funding model, the only way a university can assure itself that it can get more money is to enrol more students. You can’t guarantee additional funding by applying to EIF, and certainly not by getting more ARC grants. So the biggest signal in the regulatory environment is take more students.” Craven said a lot of universities would be preparing for growth in the lead-up to 2012 “because the last thing they want is a predator on their doorstep undercutting their market”. “Other universities will see that they can greatly increase their status and relevance by being very big. Once you get to 80,000 students, you may not be the University of Melbourne, but no one is going to kick sand in your face.” However, Craven said he was not convinced the government was prepared for dramatic growth in a short time-frame and universities could expect to see a lag time between growth of places and fulfilment of the infrastructure needed to accommodate the additional students. He said the EIF and Diversity and Structural Adjustment Fund wouldn’t be enough to cover infrastructure costs. Craven said his own plans were to increase ACU National’s enrolments from 17,000 to 25,000 – or 47 per cent – over a period of a decade or so. He concluded that the government’s expansionary push through a demand-driven system would inevitably lead to a decrease in the number of universities. “If you have a setting for ruthless competition, which is what we’ve got, it follows that the least competitive institutions will be in serious danger. I assume that is an intended result. So the only question is how significant this effect will be and who will it apply to. “From the combination of financial vulnerability, limited markets and various institutional factors, you can see which are vulnerable. “The irony is, if there is one less university, how will the government meet its participation targets?”