International HE enrolments buoyant – so far

There’s good news for HE in the latest international enrolment figures – but don’t pop the champagne corks. Higher education (HE) enrolments have barely been affected by last year’s well-publicised problems in international education, according to the March enrolment summary from Australian Education International (AEI). And the bottom hasn’t fallen out of the international VET sector or the crucial Indian market, although both are showing signs of strain. However while the latest AEI update gives a reliable picture of first semester university enrolments, industry figures warn that it doesn’t necessarily reflect constrictions working their way through the system – such as lower visa application rates and declines in critical HE pathways. The AEI figures shows that HE enrolments over the first three months of this year were up almost 13 per cent compared to the same period last year. Commencements rose 12 per cent. While this suggests slower growth than last year – when commencements grew 22 per cent – it’s a better result than each of the previous three years, when enrolments grew by between 3 and 5 per cent and commencements between 4 and 11 per cent. HE is reasserting itself as the dominant international education sector with around 183,000 enrolments and 54,000 commencements over the first three months of this year, compared to 154,000 and 43,000 respectively in VET – although HE students tend to enrol earlier in the year. Nevertheless VET hasn’t taken the hammering many predicted, with a 7 per cent increase in enrolments and a minimal decline in commencements between January and March this year. But the brakes have been hit hard, with growth now at a standstill in a sector which experienced growth of around 40 per cent in enrolments and 35 per cent in commencements during the corresponding periods of the last three years. As expected, the lull in VET has been fuelled by a slump in the key market of India. While enrolments in all educational sectors from Australia’s second biggest market have declined by under 2 per cent, commencements have plunged 30 per cent. But the shock from India hasn’t been so much in VET as in the English language (ELICOS) sector, where Indian enrolments have declined a staggering 84 per cent in just one year – relegating India from 3rd to 11th market in enrolments. Overall, the 2010 figures are bad news for the ELICOS and international schools sectors which experienced drops of 9 and 7 per cent respectively in their enrolments. While enrolments in schools have fluctuated over recent years, they’ve been relatively strong in ELICOS. Growth in ELICOS started slowing last year, after enrolments had risen by about 26 per cent and commencements around 30 per cent in 2007 and 2008. This year commencements have fallen 13 per cent, suggesting more pain ahead for the sector. International education consultant Melissa Banks cautioned universities – as well as the other sectors – against taking too much comfort from the latest figures. “There is a serious lag in the data that is not reflecting current market conditions,” she said. Banks said visa applications across all educational sectors were down for July through to December, compared with the same period last year. “Offshore visa applications are down marginally across all sectors for all major markets except Indonesia and Vietnam, with the greatest falls in India and Nepal.” And while visa applications from China continue to be strong for HE, they’ve fallen for VET. And offshore visa applications are down for ELICOS from China, India, Brazil, Korea and Thailand – “all the major student visa markets,” Banks said. “ELICOS is of course a key pathway for VET and HE.” Banks said there were also indications that private colleges offering packaged pathways to university degrees were losing enrolments to the UK and Canada. She said that at a recent meeting of 15 Australian universities’ international directors, none had experienced semester 1 enrolment growth of over 5 per cent – with many reporting no growth. “Applications and acceptances for semester 2 are either flat or down, although it’s still early days,” she said. “India is especially soft.” Banks said enquiry data, feedback from recent arrivals and advice from agents indicated that competitiveness – rather than student security – was the key problem. “Australia is potentially losing its competitive advantage of being value for money,” she said. “Exchange rates and the strength of the Australian dollar, increases in costs of living, shortages of accommodation, more stringent student visa assessments, changed country assessment levels and uncertainty re skilled migration all contribute to this deterioration of brand Australia – the perfect storm!” Go to aei.gov.au/AEI/MIP/Statistics/Default.htm#2