Diploma enrolments waver as Victoria shifts to demand drive

There are mixed signs from Australia’s first large-scale move into demand-driven tertiary education. Diploma and advanced diploma enrolments have slumped in Victorian TAFEs as the settings for the state’s VET reforms clash with its goals of increasing tertiary education participation and encouraging higher level study. But the result is mixed, with at least one TAFE claiming a sharp increase in diploma enrolments and some picking up compensatory enrolments at other qualification levels. And with anecdotal evidence of strong private provider enrolments, it’s too early to tell whether the TAFE figures signal an across-the-board decline. Victorian TAFE Association (VTA) director David Williams said TAFE institutes had experienced anything from a 20 per cent increase to a 60 per cent-plus decline in diploma and advanced diploma enrolments. But he said the overall trend was “a reasonably substantial decline”, with the reasons including higher annual fees – $2000 this year, compared to under $900 last year – as well as increased private sector competition and restricted eligibility criteria. Diploma and advanced diploma enrolments at Northern Melbourne Institute of TAFE (NMIT) are down 32 per cent compared to last year’s figures (see story this page). The University of Ballarat’s vice-chancellor Professor David Battersby reported a 10 to 15 per cent decline, while Box Hill Institute CEO John Maddock said enrolments were down around 7 per cent compared to the same time last year. The Age reported a decline of 45 per cent at William Angliss Institute, while sources indicated that two regional institutes – including Bendigo Regional Institute of TAFE (BRIT), in the electorate of former training minister and reforms initiator Jacinta Allan – had experienced declines of 60 per cent or more. But Grant Sutherland, CEO of Geelong-based Gordon Institute, said diploma and advanced diploma enrolments had risen 20 per cent. RMIT University’s TAFE director, Allan Ballagh, also said his enrolments hadn’t softened. “We have strong demand for diplomas and advanced diplomas both from returning students who enrolled prior to skills reform, and from new students who have enrolled since skills reform was introduced,” Ballagh said. There were positive signs even at institutes where enrolments had declined. Campus Review understands that a substantial increase in full fee-paying degree course enrolments at William Angliss has all but made up for its losses at diploma and advanced diploma levels. Box Hill reported a “very large” increase in fee-for-service applied degree enrolments and an overall 7 per cent increase in student contact hours across all its government-supported VET places. The Bendigo Advertiser reported that BRIT’s overall enrolments were also expected to increase, despite declines at diploma and advanced diploma levels. And Battersby told CR that Ballarat expected to make up its shortfall during the year. Most sources who spoke to CR stressed that it was too early in the year to obtain definitive data on enrolment trends. The picture is complicated by variable enrolment and data collection procedures among TAFEs, and by the approach taken by some institutes to protect themselves by over-enrolling during 2009 – much as universities are doing in preparation for the introduction of demand-driven higher education in 2012. Students at some institutes, including RMIT, appear to have dodged the fee increases by enrolling in 2009 and deferring for a year. Competition from universities may also have affected TAFE enrolments, according to Damon Anderson of Monash University. “Around 6000 more university places were offered to school leavers in Victoria this year,” he said. “This is likely to have dampened demand for TAFE diploma and advanced diploma courses which, until now, have given unsuccessful university applicants an alternative and cheaper entry route. With the recent substantial increase in fees, the TAFE pathway may have become a less attractive option for school leavers.” Complicating the picture even further is the likelihood that a drop in international enrolments could account for at least some of the decline in diploma enrolments. Victoria experienced a 12 per cent slump in international commencements in January and February, compared to the equivalent period last year. But private providers get the lion’s share of international students – and there’s no evidence that they’re experiencing a general downturn in enrolments, according to the Australian Council for Private Education and Training. CEO Andrew Smith said anecdotal reports from his members suggested enrolments had actually increased. “We’d say that’s not a bad thing in terms of what Victoria was trying to achieve, which was to allow students the opportunity to make a genuine choice. What we don’t know at this stage is whether we’re increasing overall student numbers in diplomas and advanced diplomas, or are these students simply shifting from public to private providers.” Williams said there had been “pretty substantial leakage” of TAFE enrolments to niche private providers, particularly in the arts, health, community services, IT and business. He said TAFE institutes couldn’t avoid charging the full $2000 fee for diplomas and were being undercut by private providers. “Because of our industrial relations arrangements and our whole-of-service provision – offering libraries, counselling, welfare support and so on – we need to charge the full fee to break even. Private providers are out there advertising courses for $300, $500 or no fee at all – they can live on the government-funded component. “That’s problematic for us in a competitive market. It clearly demonstrates that there is not an appropriate equation on competitive neutrality.” But Smith said pricing was an element of any market. “TAFEs have had it their own way for a long time. They’ve been able to use government subsidies to compete in the marketplace. If you’ve got good quality private providers that can demonstrate the capacity to deliver more efficiently, and price accordingly, that’s good for the consumer.” Anderson said that while it was premature to reach any definitive conclusions, the enrolment figures were a concern – particularly given the priority the state government had placed on upskilling to address skills shortages and promote social inclusion. “At face value, it doesn’t augur well from an economic or social perspective,” he said.