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Why social media is the new political barometer

After the dust settled from the Coalition’s upset win on the weekend, conversation quickly turned to how inaccurate the country’s major opinion polls had been.

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  1. From the day that Turnbull jumped (the push was imminent) it became clear that conservative voters started to drift back towards the Coalition. It accelerated as the election got closer. Anyone who followed conservative outlets, not just social media but newspapers as well (e.g. in The Australian comments sections), could sense this groundswell. Attacks on the Coalition from within gradually stopped. By contrast, during Turnbull’s rein the anger expressed towards the Coalition by commenters was incessant – self-evidently from disgruntled conservative contributors, while defence of Turnbull came from the Liberal wets or from self-evidently labor and leftwards contributors. The polls clearly failed to sense this mood change even if it was there for all (who looked) to see.

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